think in probabilities 
bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to bear their opponents.He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.for example an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain earning growth rate over five or ten year period is much more to apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price .