لخّصلي

Russia's annexation of Crimea and the military operations in eastern Ukraine have overturned the post-Cold War norms that provided stability and development for the former Soviet--now sovereign--countries bordering Russia.This archetypal constellation of fac- tors--a destabilizing conflict that halts democratic consolidation, the presence of an ethnic Russian population to justify intervention, strategic geopolitical location--has implications for other vulnerable areas along the periphery, such as Transdniester and western Kazakhstan.o Neighboring countries are recalculating their security and foreign policies through the lens of Ukraine, assessing their own security and conflict dynamics based on Russia's newly aggres- sive policies and practices in Ukraine and the West's response.o The Georgia-Russia war in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea are emblematic conflicts and demonstrate a strategic pattern to Putin's interventions.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the military operations in eastern Ukraine have overturned
the post–Cold War norms that provided stability and development for the former Soviet—now
sovereign—countries bordering Russia.
• Neighboring countries are recalculating their security and foreign policies through the lens of
Ukraine, assessing their own security and conflict dynamics based on Russia’s newly aggres-
sive policies and practices in Ukraine and the West’s response.
• To understand these newly emerging trends and dynamics, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)
led a scenario analysis, taking a medium-term, regional outlook to identify the forces and
factors propelling the potential for further conflict. This analysis yielded a set of compelling
narratives that provide a useful structure for understanding emerging conflict dynamics in
this region.
• Ukraine has become a signal case, with the conflict there leading to reactions throughout the
countries on Russia’s border.
• Countries in the region are actively testing the new contours of Russian and Western engage-
ment, regional alliances and relationships, and regional conflict dynamics. In the context of
the regions’ frozen conflicts, these stress tests are risky and could ignite further violence.
• The Georgia-Russia war in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea are emblematic conflicts and
demonstrate a strategic pattern to Putin’s interventions. This archetypal constellation of fac-
tors—a destabilizing conflict that halts democratic consolidation, the presence of an ethnic
Russian population to justify intervention, strategic geopolitical location—has implications
for other vulnerable areas along the periphery, such as Transdniester and western Kazakhstan.