لخّصلي

Across the globe, it is widely observed that current change in climate or weather pattern has marked effect on insect population dynamics and behavior, though with varied aspects and intensity. The study revealed that the population was highest during the fruit development and ripening stageand it was found that the number of flies per trap and meteorological parameters (temperature and humidity) is positively correlated with appreciable statistical significance.The current study aims to determine how changes in weather parameters influence the population dynamics of fruit flies and to develop an optimized weather-based population prediction model for fruit flies infesting citrus in the mid-hills of Arunachal Pradesh.

Across the globe, it is widely observed that current change in climate or
weather pattern has marked effect on insect population dynamics and
behavior, though with varied aspects and intensity. Understanding the
correlations of insect population dynamics with weather parameters is the
fundamental first step in formulating an effective integrated pest management
programme. In the major citrus growing mid-hill regions of Arunachal
Pradesh, fruitfly, Bactroceradorsalis, is one of the chief reasons for heavy loss
leadingto pre-harvest fruit drop in citrus. The current study aims to determine
how changes in weather parameters influence the population dynamics
of fruit flies and to develop an optimized weather-based population prediction
model for fruit flies infesting citrus in the mid-hills of Arunachal Pradesh.
The population was monitored throughstandard methyl eugenolparapheromone traps and a model was developed using stepwise multiple
regression technique. The study revealed that the population was highest
during the fruit development and ripening stageand it was found that the
number of flies per trap and meteorological parameters (temperature and
humidity) is positively correlated with appreciable statistical significance.
The optimized regression model was developed with variables temperature
and humidity, and was found to be 79 percent accurate in thestudy site.
This model will serve as an important tool in pre-estimationof the fruit
fly population in the citrus growing mid-hills of Arunachal Pradesh and
for formulation of effective preventive management strategies.