Lakhasly

Macroeconomic analysis is a significant part of evaluating the entire economic performance since analyzing and comprehending the major economic indicators can assist us in recognizing the signals these indicators provide to represent a potential change in the markets.Some examples of housing indicators: 1- Home ownership rate: In the United States of America, the ownership rate was stable at 65.60% in the second quarter of 2024 As for the average, the average was 65.27% in 1965 to 2024, where the highest level was recorded at 69.20% in the second quarter of 2004 and the lowest was 62.90% in the second quarter of 1965 2- Housing index: The housing index in America rose to 432.30 points in October compared to 430.30 points in September 2024 As for the average, it reached 201.83 points in 1991 to 2024, the highest point was 432.30 points and the lowest point was 100 points in January 1991 3- Price to rent ratio: In America, the price to rent ratio decreased to 133.63 in the third quarter of 2024 compared to B 134.25 in the second quarter of the same year As for the average, it reached 102.29 from 1970 to 2024, and the highest level was recorded at 140.87 in the second quarter of 2022, and the lowest was 88.56 in the third quarter of 1982 4- Residential real estate prices: In the United States of America, residential real estate prices rose by 3.44% in September 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year As for the average, real estate prices rose by 6.04% from 1971 to 2024, the highest level was 18.67% in the first quarter of 2022, and the lowest was -16.92% in the fourth quarter of 2008Therefore, we have selected the most commonly used indicators by experts, so it could offer us a clear and detailed overview of the economy, these indicators are: Interest rate Inflation Unemployment rate Balance of Trade GDP (Gross domestic product) CCI (Consumer confidence index) Yield curve slope Housing units Indicators: 04 Interest rate Interest rate which is consider one of the influencing macroeconomics indicators that can help the investors, businesses and decision makers to make the best financial decisions that can serve the economy.It reflects the overall rise in the cost of living and is measured by indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation impacts the economy by reducing purchasing power, increasing living costs, and raising production expenses.Meanwhile, exports rose 2.7% to a record high of $273.4 billion, led by sales of other petroleum products, passenger cars, pharmaceutical preparations, crude oil, plastic materials, trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles and civilian aircraft engines.Imports rose 3.4% as a result of purchases of foods, feeds, and beverages The trade deficit in the US widened to $78.2 billion in November 2024 compared to a revised $73.6 billion gap in October and roughly in line with forecasts.As for (S&P Global Ratings), it predicts that in 2025 U.S. Real GDP is going to experience a deceleration from outperforming the trend growth to underperforming the trend, joined by an additional increase in unemployment rate and reduced inflation.Imports rose 3.4% to $351.6 billion, the biggest gain since March 2022, led by purchases of foods, feeds, and beverages, semiconductors, passenger cars, civilian aircraft, nonmonetary gold and crude oil.In 2020, global inflation initially decreased due to lower demand and commodity prices but rose later that year as demand increased and oil prices surged globally.However, with the value still below 100, it indicates lingering caution among consumers, as many remain hesitant to spend and prefer saving amid ongoing economic uncertainties.Interest rate has a critical impact on economy; In fact, lower interest rates will lead to more borrowing money, this will encourages individual and investor to increases spending and investment which goes to affect economy in positive way (Economic recovery).The unemployment rate averaged 4.0% last year compared to 3.6% in 2023.The impact on the unemployment rate was minimal, although the jump to 4.3% in July, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, was revised down to 4.2%.This chart shows unemployment rates since 2020 (Covid-19 pandemic).Balance of Trade Balance of trade (BOT) is the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports during a specific period.The US deficit was little changed with China ($-25.4 billion vs $-25.5 billion) and Mexico ($-15.4 billion) but widened with the European Union ($-20.5 billion vs $-17.1 billion), namely Germany ($-6.9 billion vs $-5.4 billion) and France ($-2.2 billion vs $-0.09 billion), as well as with Vietnam ($-11.3 billion vs $-11 billion).The growth in Q3 real GDP is mainly driven by the rise in household spending, fixed investments in non-residential assets, exports & imports and federal-level government spending.10 Y i e l d c u r v e s l o p e 11 Housing units A housing indicator is a metric or statistical measure used to assess and monitor various aspects of the housing market, housing conditions, or housing-related policies.

Macroeconomic analysis is a significant part of evaluating the entire
economic performance since analyzing and comprehending the
major economic indicators can assist us in recognizing the signals
these indicators provide to represent a potential change in the
markets.
Therefore, we have selected the most commonly used indicators by
experts, so it could offer us a clear and detailed overview of the
economy, these indicators are:
Interest rate
Inflation
Unemployment rate
Balance of Trade
GDP (Gross domestic product)
CCI (Consumer confidence index)
Yield curve slope
Housing units
Indicators:
04
Interest rate
Interest rate which is consider one of the influencing macroeconomics indicators that can help
the investors, businesses and decision makers to make the best financial decisions that can serve
the economy. Where the interest rate being changed by the Federal Reserve and is a tool to
control Inflation in negative or positive way. Interest rate has a critical impact on economy;
In fact, lower interest rates will lead to more borrowing money, this will encourages individual
and investor to increases spending and investment which goes to affect economy in positive way
(Economic recovery). Sometimes lower interest rates can also lead to inflation.
While the opposite, higher interest rates will lead to discourage investor spending and
investment which affect economy in negative way (Economic recessions).
During the Covid-19 crisis which led to an economic downturn which led Fedral reserve to cut
interest rates from 1.75% to nearly zero (0.25%) as a result of government spending on the
economy. After the crisis and Russia-Ukraine conflict , the inflation rate rose due to several
factors, which led to a significant increase in interest rates since almost 23years (2001) to
address and combat this rise to the range of 5.50%-5.25% in mid-2023.
In addition, in late 2024 the Federal Reserve made developments that led to reducing interest
rates to 4.25%-4.50% in order to achieve economic balance and inflation.
Inflation
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services in an economy increases
over a specific period, leading to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. It reflects the overall rise
in the cost of living and is measured by indices such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Inflation impacts the economy by reducing purchasing power, increasing living costs, and raising
production expenses. One major factor was the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted production and
supply chains, causing an abnormal rise in inflation. In 2020, global inflation initially decreased due to
lower demand and commodity prices but rose later that year as demand increased and oil prices surged
globally.
According to a World Bank report, the global inflation rate peaked at 9.4% in July 2022, the highest
level since 2008. By mid-2024, inflation had declined to 2.9%, but it remained 0.7 percentage points
higher than its pre-pandemic level in early 2020.
The second factor occurred during the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, which led to a sharp rise in inflation.
Russia was the primary supplier of energy, oil, and natural gas, and its exports were disrupted, causing a
global supply shortage. Additionally, both countries are major producers of wheat and corn, and they
were also impacted by the war, leading to a global increase in their prices. The global inflation rate rose
to 9.4% in 2022, the highest since 2008. In some European countries, inflation reached 10% due to rising
energy costs, while natural gas prices increased by 400% in 2022, all as a result of the war.
The inflation rate in the United States for the year 2024 reached 2.9%, which is the highest rate recorded
during the last three months.
The forecast for the United States inflation rate is as follows:
• By the end of this quarter: 2.90%
• In 2026: 2.40%
• In 2027: 2.30%
These inflation rates are considered moderate because the target rate is usually close to 2%.
05
06
Unemployment rate
In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking
for work as a percentage of the labor force. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in
December 2024 from 4.2% the previous month, below market expectations of 4.2%. The
unemployment rate has been rising since March, when it was 3.8%. But over the past seven
months, the unemployment rate has remained between 4.1% and 4.2%. The unemployment rate
averaged 4.0% last year compared to 3.6% in 2023.The impact on the unemployment rate was
minimal, although the jump to 4.3% in July, which prompted the Federal Reserve to cut
interest rates in September, was revised down to 4.2%.
Since the unemployment rate is currently at 4.1%, it is considered within the normal range.
This chart shows unemployment rates since 2020 (Covid-19 pandemic).Balance of Trade
Balance of trade (BOT) is the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports
during a specific period. It is a key part of a country’s balance of payments (BOP) and is
sometimes divided into separate figures for goods and services. The balance of trade is also
called the trade balance, net exports, international trade balance, or commercial balance. In
November 2024, the U.S. trade deficit was $78.2 billion. Imports rose 3.4% as a result of
purchases of foods, feeds, and beverages
The trade deficit in the US widened to $78.2 billion in November 2024 compared to a revised
$73.6 billion gap in October and roughly in line with forecasts. Imports rose 3.4% to $351.6
billion, the biggest gain since March 2022, led by purchases of foods, feeds, and beverages,
semiconductors, passenger cars, civilian aircraft, nonmonetary gold and crude oil. Meanwhile,
exports rose 2.7% to a record high of $273.4 billion, led by sales of other petroleum products,
passenger cars, pharmaceutical preparations, crude oil, plastic materials, trucks, buses, and
special purpose vehicles and civilian aircraft engines. The US deficit was little changed with
China ($-25.4 billion vs $-25.5 billion) and Mexico ($-15.4 billion) but widened with the
European Union ($-20.5 billion vs $-17.1 billion), namely Germany ($-6.9 billion vs $-5.4
billion) and France ($-2.2 billion vs $-0.09 billion), as well as with Vietnam ($-11.3 billion vs
$-11 billion).
-64.915
-66.399
-68.87
-75.456
-67.972
-76.177
-73.592
-79.196
-70.618
-83.795
-73.62
-78.19
08
Gross domestic product (GDP)
The U.S. Economy is the top, number one economy across the globe, with a GDP of
nearly 29 trillion U.S. dollars in the year 2024.
2024 Q1: 1.6%
2024 Q2: 3%
2024 Q3: 3.1%
As it shows, Q3 which is the most recent available data of the real GDP, is the highest
among all of them by 3.1% compared to (3% vs 1.6%) for Q2 and Q1.
The growth in Q3 real GDP is mainly driven by the rise in household spending, fixed
investments in non-residential assets, exports & imports and federal-level government
spending.
In parallel to these changes, other factors led to balance them too to some extent with a
decline in private inventory investment and a more significant reduction in residential fixed
investment.
As of today, some forecasts have been made by many experts stating the possible GDP
growth, where is expected to grow to 2.30% in Q4, based on (Trading Economics).
As for (S&P Global Ratings), it predicts that in 2025 U.S. Real GDP is going to
experience a deceleration from outperforming the trend growth to underperforming the
trend, joined by an additional increase in unemployment rate and reduced inflation.
09
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
In October 2024, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of the United States stood at 98.22.
Over the years, the CCI has shown notable shifts, reflecting consumer sentiment in response
to changing economic conditions.
The index dropped sharply during the Great Recession of 2008-2009, falling well below 100,
as consumers grew pessimistic about the economy. A slow recovery followed, and by 2018,
the index peaked above 101, signaling strong confidence and economic stability.
In 2020, the CCI experienced another sharp decline due to the economic impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic. While there were some signs of recovery in the years that followed, the
index remained volatile, with a significant dip occurring again in 2022.
By late 2024, the CCI began to show signs of improvement after a year of consistent declines.
However, with the value still below 100, it indicates lingering caution among consumers, as
many remain hesitant to spend and prefer saving amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
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Housing units
A housing indicator is a metric or statistical measure used to assess and monitor various
aspects of the housing market, housing conditions, or housing-related policies. It
provides insights into trends and dynamics such as affordability, availability, quality, and
demand in the housing sector.
Some examples of housing indicators:
1- Home ownership rate: In the United States of America, the ownership rate was stable
at 65.60% in the second quarter of 2024
As for the average, the average was 65.27% in 1965 to 2024, where the highest level was
recorded at 69.20% in the second quarter of 2004 and the lowest was 62.90% in the
second quarter of 1965
2- Housing index: The housing index in America rose to 432.30 points in October
compared to 430.30 points in September 2024
As for the average, it reached 201.83 points in 1991 to 2024, the highest point was 432.30
points and the lowest point was 100 points in January 1991
3- Price to rent ratio: In America, the price to rent ratio decreased to 133.63 in the third
quarter of 2024 compared to
B 134.25 in the second quarter of the same year
As for the average, it reached 102.29 from 1970 to 2024, and the highest level was
recorded at 140.87 in the second quarter of 2022, and the lowest was 88.56 in the third
quarter of 1982
4- Residential real estate prices: In the United States of America, residential real estate
prices rose by 3.44% in September 2024 compared to the same month of the previous year
As for the average, real estate prices rose by 6.04% from 1971 to 2024, the highest level
was 18.67% in the first quarter of 2022, and the lowest was -16.92% in the fourth quarter
of 2008