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The broad societal benefits of ad-vances in technology exceed the asso-ciated costs sufficiently to make technological growth inexorable.Shef's so-cioeconomic study (1) has indicated that technological growth has been generally exponential in this century, doubling every 20 years in nations hav-ing advanced technology.Such technological growth has apparently stimulated a parallel growth in socioeco-nomic benefits and a slower associated growth in social costs.
The broad societal benefits of ad-vances in technology exceed the asso-ciated costs sufficiently to make technological growth inexorable. Shef's so-cioeconomic study (1) has indicated that technological growth has been generally exponential in this century, doubling every 20 years in nations hav-ing advanced technology. Such technological growth has apparently stimulated a parallel growth in socioeco-nomic benefits and a slower associated growth in social costs. The conventional socioeconomic ben-efits-health, education, income-are presumably indicative of an improvement in the" quality of life." The cost of this socioeconomic progress shows up in all the negative indicators of our so-ciety-urban and environmental problems, technological unemployment, poor physical and mental health, and so on. If we understood quantitatively the causal relationships between specific technological developments and societal values, both positive and negative, we might deliberately guide and regulate technological developments so as to achieve maximum social benefit at minimum social cost. Unfortunately, we have not as yet developed such a pre-dictive system analysis. As a result, our society historically has arrived at ac-ceptable balances of technological benefit and social cost empirically-by trial, error, and subsequent corrective steps.
In advanced societies today, this his-torical empirical approach creates an increasingly critical situation, for two basic reasons. The first is the well-known difficulty inchanging a technical subsystem of our society once it has been woven into the economic, political, and cultural structures. Forexam-ple, many of our environmental-pollu-tion problems have known engineering
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