لخّصلي

Symposium I

The Egyptian Renaissance (2030):

Miracle or Myth?

Fayez Elessawy

Geography and Urban Planning Department, College of Humanities &

Social Sciences, United Arab Emirates University,

P.O. Box 15551, Al Ain, U.A.E.

Studying the Egyptian population is an integral part of analyzing Egypt’s

2030 development vision. The Egyptians are the heirs and makers of one

of the most glorious civilizations in human history. The ancient

Egyptians were well known for their contributions to different fields of

human knowledge, including astronomy, agriculture, engineering, medi-

cine, and architecture. Though Egypt was subjected to several invasions,

it was not affected by military colonization; instead, the colonizers came

under the influence of the Egyptians.

In the late 19th century, Egypt witnessed an unprecedented but brief

scientific revival. Many Egyptians have suffered from poverty for

decades, which has led to two consecutive revolutions, in 2011 and 2013.

Since 2013 Egypt has embarked on a new era of development and growth

in different fields. The key question is, Will Egyptians be able to escape

the historical ghetto and regain their prominence as a leading country in

the Middle East and the most populous country in the Arab world?

The Egyptian Population

In 2014 Egypt’s population exceeded 85million. Most of the population

is concentrated within the Nile delta valley, occupying no more than 10%

of the country’s total land area, and the country’s rapid population

growth is not matched by increases in arable land area or in economic

resources. This mismatch has produced a wide gap between population

growth and national revenue growth. The demographic problem of

increasing population has resulted in high rates of unemployment, illit-

eracy, malnutrition, and poverty, as well as triggering daily problems

with electricity supply, food shortages, and pollution. Other problems

have also emerged, particularly the rarity of foreign currency because of

large imports from abroad.

Thanks to high fertility rates and low mortality rates, the Egyptian

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Fayez Elessawy 46

population is expected to reach 115million by 2030, representing an

annual increase of 1.25 million people. Birth rates are highest in poor

areas in southern Egypt and the northern Nile delta. To control and

constrain economic development caused by the increasing population,

the government should pay more attention to social and economic devel-

opment projects which will gradually lead to more prosperity. Such

development will change the population’s demographic characteristics

and eventually reduce unemployment rates. New agricultural and indus-

trial projects and more land reclamation far away from the Nile valley

will increase the number and size of inhabited areas, easing the pressure

on arable land. By 2030 Egypt needs to eliminate corruption by govern-

ment officials and encourage foreign investments. The new projects will

narrow the gap between rich and poor and as well revitalizing the

economy and perhaps enhancing the fair redistribution of national

wealth.

In this new spirit of change, President Abdel Fattah Elsisi declared in

2015 that Egypt will foster a suitable environment for foreign investors by

creating new regulations untouched by and corruption. The new projects

will employ large numbers of job seekers. The government began

reclaiming 700000 feddan (1 feddan is equal to 295000ha) of land in the

western desert and Sinai in 2015; the construction of several new cities

across the country will also expand, establishing mega-projects and new

urbanized centres. This will lead to reduced unemployment rates and an

increase in annual income to US$12000, making Egypt a middle-income

country and decreasing poverty rates, particularly in Upper Egypt and

other governorates in which 40 % of the population lives below the

poverty line.

Population and Education

Education is a major variable that affects demographic characteristics on

several levels. A highly educated population is associated with higher

economic and social development rates. Egypt unfortunately still suffers

from high illiteracy rates relative to other countries: approximately

15million people (two-thirds of them women and girls) are considered

illiterate, particularly in rural and poor areas in the south, and the high

rate of illiteracy is connected with the increasing terrorist activities in

these areas, as terrorist organizations tend to recruit the illiterate and the

poor.

In 2030 and beyond, we can expect that increases in the education

budget, development of the educational system, reduced class sizes, and

the use of modern technology in schools, as well as a focus on educating

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The Egyptian Renaissance (2030) 47

girls, will significantly reduce poverty and illiteracy. By 2030, the educa-

tional sector is expected to receive 15% of national income, and Egypt’s

universities will be modernized to enhance the quality of training students

receive. Egyptian universities are expected to regain their positions

among the best 500 universities worldwide.

Public Health and Population

The last 30 years have seen unprecedented deterioration in Egypt’s public

health sector, increasing poverty and suffering in the overall population.

The health service in public hospitals is rapidly declining, and corruption

is becoming rife; endemic diseases such as flu, hepatitis, and chronic

kidney diseases are spreading among the general population. Egypt has

the highest incidence of hepatitis C virus in the world, estimated at

14.7%; chronic kidney disease, schistosomiasis, bacterial diarrhoea, and

typhoid fever are also rampant among poorer communities in rural

Egypt. Non-communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes

mellitus are also on the rise among the adult population in all socio-

economic classes. The incidence of cancer is approximately 110–120 per

100 000 population, which is relatively high;