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Symposium I
The Egyptian Renaissance (2030):
Miracle or Myth?Thanks to high fertility rates and low mortality rates, the Egyptian
The Arab World Geographer / Le Geographe du monde arabe Vol 18, no 1-2 (2014) 45-50
(C) 2015 Geo Publishing, Toronto Canada
Fayez Elessawy 46
population is expected to reach 115?million by 2030, representing an
annual increase of 1.25?Egypt unfortunately still suffers
from high illiteracy rates relative to other countries: approximately
15?million people (two-thirds of them women and girls) are considered
illiterate, particularly in rural and poor areas in the south, and the high
rate of illiteracy is connected with the increasing terrorist activities in
these areas, as terrorist organizations tend to recruit the illiterate and the
poor.In 2030 and beyond, we can expect that increases in the education
budget, development of the educational system, reduced class sizes, and
the use of modern technology in schools, as well as a focus on educating
The Arab World Geographer / Le Geographe du monde arabe Vol 18, no 1-2 (2015)
The Egyptian Renaissance (2030) 47
girls, will significantly reduce poverty and illiteracy.Fayez Elessawy
Geography and Urban Planning Department, College of Humanities &
Social Sciences, United Arab Emirates University,
P.O. Box 15551, Al Ain, U.A.E.
Studying the Egyptian population is an integral part of analyzing Egypt's
2030 development vision.In this new spirit of change, President Abdel Fattah Elsisi declared in
2015 that Egypt will foster a suitable environment for foreign investors by
creating new regulations untouched by and corruption.
Symposium I
The Egyptian Renaissance (2030):
Miracle or Myth?
Fayez Elessawy
Geography and Urban Planning Department, College of Humanities &
Social Sciences, United Arab Emirates University,
P.O. Box 15551, Al Ain, U.A.E.
Studying the Egyptian population is an integral part of analyzing Egypt’s
2030 development vision. The Egyptians are the heirs and makers of one
of the most glorious civilizations in human history. The ancient
Egyptians were well known for their contributions to different fields of
human knowledge, including astronomy, agriculture, engineering, medi-
cine, and architecture. Though Egypt was subjected to several invasions,
it was not affected by military colonization; instead, the colonizers came
under the influence of the Egyptians.
In the late 19th century, Egypt witnessed an unprecedented but brief
scientific revival. Many Egyptians have suffered from poverty for
decades, which has led to two consecutive revolutions, in 2011 and 2013.
Since 2013 Egypt has embarked on a new era of development and growth
in different fields. The key question is, Will Egyptians be able to escape
the historical ghetto and regain their prominence as a leading country in
the Middle East and the most populous country in the Arab world?
The Egyptian Population
In 2014 Egypt’s population exceeded 85million. Most of the population
is concentrated within the Nile delta valley, occupying no more than 10%
of the country’s total land area, and the country’s rapid population
growth is not matched by increases in arable land area or in economic
resources. This mismatch has produced a wide gap between population
growth and national revenue growth. The demographic problem of
increasing population has resulted in high rates of unemployment, illit-
eracy, malnutrition, and poverty, as well as triggering daily problems
with electricity supply, food shortages, and pollution. Other problems
have also emerged, particularly the rarity of foreign currency because of
large imports from abroad.
Thanks to high fertility rates and low mortality rates, the Egyptian
The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 18, no 1-2 (2014) 45-50
© 2015 Geo Publishing, Toronto Canada
Fayez Elessawy 46
population is expected to reach 115million by 2030, representing an
annual increase of 1.25 million people. Birth rates are highest in poor
areas in southern Egypt and the northern Nile delta. To control and
constrain economic development caused by the increasing population,
the government should pay more attention to social and economic devel-
opment projects which will gradually lead to more prosperity. Such
development will change the population’s demographic characteristics
and eventually reduce unemployment rates. New agricultural and indus-
trial projects and more land reclamation far away from the Nile valley
will increase the number and size of inhabited areas, easing the pressure
on arable land. By 2030 Egypt needs to eliminate corruption by govern-
ment officials and encourage foreign investments. The new projects will
narrow the gap between rich and poor and as well revitalizing the
economy and perhaps enhancing the fair redistribution of national
wealth.
In this new spirit of change, President Abdel Fattah Elsisi declared in
2015 that Egypt will foster a suitable environment for foreign investors by
creating new regulations untouched by and corruption. The new projects
will employ large numbers of job seekers. The government began
reclaiming 700000 feddan (1 feddan is equal to 295000ha) of land in the
western desert and Sinai in 2015; the construction of several new cities
across the country will also expand, establishing mega-projects and new
urbanized centres. This will lead to reduced unemployment rates and an
increase in annual income to US$12000, making Egypt a middle-income
country and decreasing poverty rates, particularly in Upper Egypt and
other governorates in which 40 % of the population lives below the
poverty line.
Population and Education
Education is a major variable that affects demographic characteristics on
several levels. A highly educated population is associated with higher
economic and social development rates. Egypt unfortunately still suffers
from high illiteracy rates relative to other countries: approximately
15million people (two-thirds of them women and girls) are considered
illiterate, particularly in rural and poor areas in the south, and the high
rate of illiteracy is connected with the increasing terrorist activities in
these areas, as terrorist organizations tend to recruit the illiterate and the
poor.
In 2030 and beyond, we can expect that increases in the education
budget, development of the educational system, reduced class sizes, and
the use of modern technology in schools, as well as a focus on educating
The Arab World Geographer / Le Géographe du monde arabe Vol 18, no 1-2 (2015)
The Egyptian Renaissance (2030) 47
girls, will significantly reduce poverty and illiteracy. By 2030, the educa-
tional sector is expected to receive 15% of national income, and Egypt’s
universities will be modernized to enhance the quality of training students
receive. Egyptian universities are expected to regain their positions
among the best 500 universities worldwide.
Public Health and Population
The last 30 years have seen unprecedented deterioration in Egypt’s public
health sector, increasing poverty and suffering in the overall population.
The health service in public hospitals is rapidly declining, and corruption
is becoming rife; endemic diseases such as flu, hepatitis, and chronic
kidney diseases are spreading among the general population. Egypt has
the highest incidence of hepatitis C virus in the world, estimated at
14.7%; chronic kidney disease, schistosomiasis, bacterial diarrhoea, and
typhoid fever are also rampant among poorer communities in rural
Egypt. Non-communicable diseases such as hypertension and diabetes
mellitus are also on the rise among the adult population in all socio-
economic classes. The incidence of cancer is approximately 110–120 per
100 000 population, which is relatively high;
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