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CIA Director William Burns said that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his spy chief showed «hubris» and «cockiness» after recent discussions with Moscow, but warned that such attitudes could lead to «blunders» for authoritarian leaders.
Mr Burns sat for a wide-ranging interview with CBS News' Margaret Brennan and revealed his perspective on the Russian leaders' attitude.
Brennan noted that Mr Putin has «about three or four people» who knew he was planning the invasion of Ukraine last year. Mr Burns confirmed it was true, saying Mr Putin has been narrowing the number of people who have direct access to his planning, often prioritising «loyalty over competence».
«It was a group of people who tended to tell him what he wanted to hear, and- or at least had learned over the years that it wasn't career enhancing to question his judgments as well,» Mr Burns said. «And so that was one of the deepest flaws I think, in Russian decision-making just before the war as it was such a close circle of people reinforcing one another's profoundly mistaken assumptions».
When asked if any of his inner circle give him counsel, Mr Burns said he believes that Mr Putin has «become increasingly convinced that he knows better than anyone else what's at stake for Russia».
Brennan asked the CIA director about recent discussions he had with Russian officials, noting that he had called them «dispiriting».
Mr Burns said Sergey Naryshkin, the director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, the SVR, has had a «very defiant attitude», with a «sense of cockiness and hubris».
He said that hubris was apparent in what he believes to be Mr Putin's miscalculations ahead of his invasion of Ukraine last year.
«He believed that Ukraine was weak and divided, he thought the West was distracted, and he thought he had modernized the Russian military to the point where it was capable of a quick, decisive victory,» he said. «Of course, it turned out that each of those assumptions was profoundly flawed».
The CIA chief said that despite those flawed assumptions, Mr Putin is convinced he can grind down the Ukrainian forces over time and that Americans will eventually lose interest in supporting Kyiv's defence efforts. « believes he can grind down the Ukrainians, that he can wear down our European allies, that political fatigue will eventually set in. And in my experience, Putin's view of Americans, of us, has been that we have attention deficit disorder, and we'll move on to some other issue eventually,» Mr Burns said. «And so Putin, in many ways, I think, believes today that he cannot win for a while, but he can't afford to lose. I mean, that's his conviction».
Brennan noted that Russia had suffered significant casualties in Ukraine, calling it a «meat grinder» for Moscow's military, which includes a significant portion of conscripts, and asked if that had sobered Mr Putin at all.

How Groupthink Works

Why does groupthink occur? Think about the last time you were part of a group, perhaps during a school project. Imagine that someone proposes an idea that you think is quite poor.
However, everyone else in the group agrees with the person who suggested the idea, and the group seems set on pursuing that course of action.

Causes

• Group identity: It tends to occur more in situations where group members are very similar to one another. When there is strong group identity, members of the group tend to perceive their group as correct or superior while expressing disdain or disapproval toward people outside of the group.


• Leader influences: Groupthink is also more likely to take place when a powerful and charismatic leader commands the group.

Janis suggested that groupthink tends to be the most prevalent in conditions

• When there is a high degree of cohesiveness.

Examples of Groupthink

Groupthink has been attributed to many real-world political decisions that have had consequential effects. In his original descriptions of groupthink, Janis suggested that the escalation of the Vietnam War, the Bay of Pigs invasion, and the failure of the U.S. to heed warnings about a potential attack on Pearl Harbor were all influenced by groupthink.

Impact of Groupthink

Groupthink can cause people to ignore important information and can ultimately lead to poor decisions. This can be damaging even in minor situations but can have much more dire consequences in certain settings. Medical, military, or political decisions, for example, can lead to unfortunate outcomes when they are impaired by the effects of groupthink.
The phenomenon can have high costs.

• The suppression of individual opinions and creative thought can lead to inefficient problem-solving.


• It can contribute to group members engaging in self-censorship. This tendency to seek consensus above all else also means that group members may not adequately assess the potential risks and benefits of a decision.


• Groupthink also tends to lead group members to perceive the group as inherently moral or right. Stereotyped beliefs about other groups can contribute to this biased sense of rightness.

Tips for Avoiding Groupthink

There are steps that groups can take to minimize this problem. First, leaders can give group members the opportunity to express their own ideas or argue against ideas that have already been proposed.
Breaking up members into smaller independent teams can also be helpful.1 Here are some more ideas that might help prevent groupthink.

• Initially, the leader of the group should avoid stating their opinions or preferences when assigning tasks. Give people time to come up with their own ideas first.


• Assign at least one individual to take the role of the «devil's advocate».


• Discuss the group's ideas with an outside member in order to get impartial opinions.


• Encourage group members to remain critical.